V. Discussion of research results and policy suggestions

The findings of the study on the scale of RTVU higher education enrollment and the changes to student composition are of significance in terms of guiding development planning, enrollment, teaching and student support for RTVUs.

Firstly, as far as development planning is concerned, we can make an optimistic estimate of the scale of RTVU enrollment over the next 10 years based on the positive correlation between China’s GDP data and RTVU enrollment. This will help to ease worries about the future development of RTVUs, by increasing teaching input, improving the quality of teaching and achieving sustainable development. The following statements reveal clear worries over the future of the RTVUs. “The number of technical secondary school graduates and high school graduates continues to decline…which poses an ever more severe challenge for enrollment for junior college open education programmes, as these graduates constitute a major source of enrollment^[5]”. “As the number of people under the age of 18 declines every year, a gradual decline in the number of college-age people (18-35) in distance education is predicted, with the situation expected to worsen after 2008. This will directly impact distance education enrollment in Zhejiang^[6]”. While it is true that the number of people in China at the peak age for higher education is in decline, economic development and a demand for China to develop strong human resources will help maintain China’s gross enrollment rate. As Cheng Yao and Zhang Dongbin^[10] predicted, the scale of RTVU operations will expand along with the scale of higher education in China. RTVU staff must maintain this belief; otherwise, fears over a decrease in student enrollment may lead to a decrease in teaching input, impacting negatively on teaching quality. 

Secondly, in terms of enrollment, there are three factors that RTVU leaders and staff in charge of enrollment must be aware of for their future work: the number of diploma-to-degree students is decreasing, students are getting younger and the proportion of students with a high school education is increasing. In the future, RTVUs should focus on increasing the proportion of diploma-to-degree students and potentially commencing enrollment of postgraduate students. This will be conducive to improving the operational level of the RTVUs. More technical secondary school graduates should be enrolled. The risk of competition over student enrollment can be avoided if the issue is properly dealt with between the RTVUs and regular higher education institutions. Older students should be leveraged to expand the scale of enrollment, which will help maintain the RTVUs as centers of adult learning.

Thirdly, as students are getting younger, the proportion of unmarried students is increasing, which is beneficial to the organization of teaching activities. Young students, particularly those who are single, have fewer family commitments, meaning that they have more time to devote to distance learning. In addition, they have existing knowledge of online techniques and can adapt to online learning more quickly. However, existing studies^[11][12] show that there is a great potential drop out rate among students aged under 20 in junior college open education programmes. This may be as a result of weak self-discipline and a lack of motivation caused by an absence of related life pressures. This is a key issue that RTVU teachers must guard against.