II. Relevant Research
The most systematic international research achievements on dropouts from open and distance education have been made by Ormond Simpson. Simpson acted as director of the OUUK’s Centre for Teaching Instruction and Learning Support and is currently working as a research fellow at Centre for Distance Learning at University of London. He has published a series of research findings on dropout rates and student retention, including Supporting Students in Online, Open and Distance Learning, and Supporting Students for Success in Online and Distance Education. Both of his books have been translated and published in China. As a summary of Simpson’s research achievements, he has provided answers to the following questions: What is the dropout rate at the OUUK? What is the temporal regularity of dropouts? What are the reasons for dropouts? What types of students tend to drop out? How can we prevent dropout and increase retention rates? What is the dropout rate (graduation rate) at the OUUK?
According to Simpson, OUUK officially started to admit students in 1971 and the graduation rate has been decreasing since. The graduation rate dropped from 59% in 1971 to 22% in 1994 after the students had been in school for 11 years.
1. What is the temporal regularity of dropouts?
Simpson describes the occurrence regularity in the form of weeks between entrance and examination, and exit track during learning. He reiterated that dropouts usually occur in the early stages of course learning.
2.What are the reasons for dropouts?
Simpson indicates that many students say they drop out because they can’t keep up with learning and they are experiencing stress related to their courses, work and family, as well as health problems. However, Simpson has his own view. He believes that the deeper reason behind the student dropouts is a lack of learning motivation, which is the most important factor for learning progress.
3. What types of students tend to drop out?
According to Simpson, people with one or more of the following features tend to drop out: low prior education qualifications, wrong choice of major, inappropriate choice of course level, an overload of schoolwork, or low socio-economic status.
4. How to prevent dropouts and increase retention rates?
(1) Formula to calculate retention
Simpson has developed a formula to calculate retention:
Student Success = Appropriate Course Choice + Early Determination of Students “More Likely to Drop out”+ (Early + Continuous)Contact × Proactive Learning Motivation Support.
Students are helped to choose appropriate courses and to establish continuous proactive learning motivation contact with them as soon as possible.
(2) Retrieval
In order to improve retention, it is necessary to both decrease dropouts and attract back those who have dropped out already.
Simpson indicates that the students may drop out at different stages of the learning process and suggests that universities therefore take different retrieval strategies. He also proposes finding out which students are liable to drop out through data mining or with the help of learning analysis software. In conclusion, he says that it can be necessary to give up on the dropouts if the cost and effort of retrieval is too much for the university.
Simpson’s research findings are reflected in the practices and rules of the OUUK, which has set a perfect practical example in the world of open and distance education against the background of a highly developed economy and society. Though distance education in China is also facing high dropout rates, the stakeholders are more interested in local practices and research results for instruction in domestic distance education development. What answers can be given to the five questions raised by Ormond Simpson through distance education practices in China? This paper tries to respond to these questions with the aid of a series of research made in the Research on Dropouts from Open and Distance Education project.
Research on Dropouts from Open and Distance Education is a project funded by the 2009 National Natural Science Foundation of China and undertaken by CCRTVU (aka the OUC)from 2010-2012. Based on the practices of CCRTVU (whose students account for two-thirds of the active students in open and distance education in China), an in-depth investigation was completed on dropouts from open and distance education in China. This project represents the most systematic research on dropouts from open and distance education in China. From the results, distance education staff can clearly observe dropout rates and their regularity in China’s open and distance education, and investigate methods of dropout prevention and retrieval.