In order to ensure the precision and credibility of the research findings, we assessed the consistency of the document code. Two researchers independently encoded the same randomly selected sample. With the help of the NVivo 9 software and its “Code comparison” function, a consistency percentage was successfully calculated. Reliable code has a consistency percentage of above 70% (Li Manli, 2010). All six categories have a consistency percentage of over 80%, indicating that the research data is credible.  

Table 1 Code consistency percentage 

Ⅳ. Research findings

1. Overall dropout rates during the three semesters

Table two shows the overall dropout rates for the English major over the course of the three semesters observed. From this table we can see that dropout rates are higher during the first and second semesters and that dropout rates during the third semester are comparatively low. There were 142 dropouts from the bachelor’s degree programme during the period observed, giving a dropout rate of 14.9%. 256 students dropped out of the diploma programme, giving a dropout rate of 20.0%. There were 398 dropouts in total, giving a dropout rate of 17.8%.

Table 2  Overall dropout rates during the three semesters observed

2. Attribution analysis of ODL dropouts

2.1 Bachelor’s degree programme

2.1.1 Before enrollment

Table three details the students’ ODL related abilities prior to enrollment, their personal characteristics and their academic situation. Data is derived from online questionnaires with 101 students registered on a bachelor’s degree programme during the three semesters observed. From this table, we can see that there are more female dropouts than male dropouts. 50% of female dropouts are married, 29.7% have children and 88.1% work full time. Thus, adult students must learn how to allocate their time properly in order to find space to learn. When filling in the questionnaire, students mentioned “Time Management” as an important reason that leads to dropping out. Table three also shows that 89.1% of the students are college degree holders and nearly half of them have studied English. This means that although most of the students have an adequate academic background, nearly half of them lack professional skills and fluent English reading and writing ability, which leads to a heavy mental load after enrollment. ODL relies on a mixed teaching model characterized by a combination of face-to-face tutorial and online tutorial, so students are required to possess extensive knowledge and know how to use a computer. The “Participation in School-organized Online Learning” category was included in the questionnaire research to assess these skills. The findings show that only 28.7% of dropouts regularly participate in online learning and that the rest are not able to make full use of ICT for online learning. Table 3 illustrates lack of preparedness prior to enrollment.

Table 3  Pre-enrollment situation of bachelor’s degree programme dropouts